Saturday that he won't run for Senate in Montana imperils Democrats'
chances of holding the seat and could further narrow an ever-shrinking
2014 Senate map.
Already, Republicans are favored to win two seats left vacant by
Democratic retirements — in West Virginia and South Dakota — and the
Schweitzer move will make it much easier for the GOP to win in
Montana.
That means the battle for the majority will likely be fought in a
handful of red states with Democratic incumbents, including North
Carolina, Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska.
To capture the net six seats it needs to take back the majority in
2014, the GOP will also have to successfully defend Minority Leader
Mitch McConnell in Kentucky and avoid a bloody primary in Georgia that
could give Democrats an opening in the red state.
Schweitzer roiled the Senate landscape when he told the Associated
Press Saturday that he wants to stay in Montana rather than move to
Washington, D.C. But his potential candidacy was also raising red
flags within the party: After weeks of courting the 57-year-old
Schweitzer, Democratic leaders reversed course in recent days.
Scrutinizing Schweitzer's past, they concluded there was too much
ammunition for Republicans to use against him in the campaign to
replace the retiring veteran Democrat Max Baucus, according to a
source familiar with the thinking of those leaders.
Polls had shown the gregarious and folksy ex-governor as a favorite in
the race, given his popularity after two terms in office. The
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had said as recently as
Wednesday there would be "tremendous support" for Schweitzer if he
decided to run.
Schweitzer had been hit with a series of damaging stories about his
ties to "secret money" and a nonprofit group run by former aides. But
sources said the laundry list of opposition research went much deeper
— and could have crippled a Schweitzer campaign for Senate. Moreover,
there was fear that Schweitzer's penchant for off-the-cuff remarks
would hurt his ability to respond effectively to the barrage of GOP
attacks.
Schweitzer ended a long Republican run of control of the governor's
office when he was first elected in 2004. But he frequently sparred
with fellow top Democrats in the state, including Baucus and Sen. Jon
Tester. Unease within the party about Schweitzer's presumed candidacy
had begun to surface in recent days.
Still, Schweitzer would have very formidable, forcing both parties to
spend millions in what could have been a closely contested fight.
In Montana, Democrats said Saturday they still had a chance and there
were other possible Democratic candidates who could give Republicans a
serious run. Those potential Democratic candidates include Denise
Juneau, Montana's state public schools superintendent; Stephanie
Schriock, the president of Emily's List; and Monica Lindeen, Montana
insurance commissioner.
"Running for the U.S. Senate is a big decision for a potential
candidate and their family. Just because this year wasn't the right
time for Brian to run doesn't mean we don't have great Montana
Democrats who are willing to run and capable of winning the seat,"
Tester said in a statement.
And Republicans could have their own tough primary in Montana. It
remains to be seen how the Republican primary shapes up — and whether
Rep. Steve Daines decides to jump in against former state Sen. Corey
Stapleton and state Rep. Champ Edmunds.
Nevertheless, Schweitzer's move is expected to stun the Democratic
political establishment — particular in Montana, where the party was
gathering this weekend for the state convention in Lewistown, Mont.
His decision will also disappoint the left, which embraced the
populist governor when he backed a liberal health care overhaul plan
in 2009 as Baucus played dealmaker in the Senate.
And his decision to forgo the campaign will leave Democrats without
their biggest name — and personality — in the race.
"We remain confident that Democrats can hold the Montana seat and the
overall math still favors Democrats next year," Guy Cecil, the
executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee,
said in a statement. "Only three Democratic incumbents have lost
reelection in the last decade. Our incumbents are positioned to win,
we've already recruited a strong challenger to Mitch McConnell and
Republicans have failed to expand the senate map into blue and purple
states."
Republicans, of course, had a different take.
"Just two days ago, Senate Democrats were quoted promising Brian
Schweitzer tremendous resources to get in the race," said National
Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brad Dayspring. "We did our
homework and there was a lot of rust under Schweitzer's hood, but just
as important is that he looked at the race and realized he wouldn't
win in light of how unpopular the Democrat agenda of higher taxes,
bankrupting spending, and the Obamacare train wreck is in Montana
these days."
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